Earnings season points to big tech’s ongoing revenue resilience

September 24, 2024

While markets entered earnings season with concerns amid a volatile backdrop, it was another case where Wall Street distinguished itself from Main Street.

Although there were plenty of headlines through April, in a month where tariffs and concerns about the global economic outlook dominated the narrative, another major event also took place. That is, the latest round of earnings season.



Against all the odds, and defying much of the pessimism that has engulfed markets over the last couple months, results were broadly positive, reflecting a level of resilience that is particularly impressive.


For starters, across the first quarter of the year, S&P 500 companies reported average sales growth of 3.8%.This was the 18th straight quarter where revenue growth was recorded. The nature of this growth was broad-based and robust across various industries, with seven out of eleven sectors posting positive sales growth.

Adding to the top-line results was growth at the bottom line.


In fact, while revenue increases were relatively modest, profits fared even better. As it were, earnings growth came in at 13.4% year-over-year.


These figures tell us that companies have done well to navigate an uncertain quarter where it has been difficult to get a true reading on government policy, and to a lesser extent, the direction of inflation.


Nonetheless, overall net profit margins for the benchmark S&P 500 index were 12.7%, which was an improvement against the preceding quarter, when said metric was 12.6%, and it was also higher than the relevant figure from a year ago, which clocked in at 11.8%. 


Of course, it wouldn’t be earnings season if the mega-tech sector didn’t play a leading hand, as was the case yet again during the first quarter of 2025.


In fact, the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors were the primary catalysts for growth across the market, with sector earnings increasing by 17.4% and 29.1% respectively.


One surprising point rests in the fact that revenue growth across the tech sector, like the broader S&P 500, lagged earnings growth.


This isn’t necessarily a bad problem, since it shows that companies have been able to optimise their operations and build out their margins.


However, moving forward, the longer revenue growth remains modest, the deeper companies will need to search in order to harness the efficiencies that maintain their margins, let alone grow them.


And with much uncertainty still dependent on macroeconomic factors, there is the prospect that revenue growth becomes harder to realise as companies lose flexibility over some of the cost controls in their business.


Tech sector underpins growth


Focusing specifically on the tech sector, and the feats of big tech, it’s easy to see why earnings season was a success last month.


Overall, this group provided the reassurances required to maintain the recovery that started to build momentum when the US government rolled back its position on individualised tariffs for every country around the world.


On the whole, the tech conglomerates achieved a year-over-year earnings increase of 28%, which is a significant accomplishment given many companies were walking a tightrope of uncertainty.


By way of comparison, the rest of the reporting S&P 500 constituents delivered earnings growth of 9% during Q1 2025. 


As such, big-tech effectively tripled the growth rate of the rest of the market - and more than doubled the total growth rate for the S&P 500 - showcasing why these high-profile names command premiums to their valuations.

In the case of Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), these two companies were arguably the pick of the bunch from the tech sector, with both of the tech giants exceeding economists forecasts.


When it came to Meta Platforms, the company also announced that it would be increasing its capital expenditure for the full-year, looking to capitalise on the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. 


This is a decision that we took a particular liking to, as in our opinion, to date, Meta has underinvested in this area relative to its peers. It looks as though the market may have agreed as well, with META shares rallying in light of the news, even with the revised capex range now sitting at as much as US$72 billion.


As far as Microsoft, it was hard to overlook the company’s Azure cloud division, where revenue growth was accelerating. Across this division, revenue increased by 22% over the year, providing hope that the company has entrenched its leading position in this field. 


Elsewhere, Google parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) unveiled a 12% increase in revenue, which totalled US$90.2 billion. On top of that, the company managed to lift net earnings by 46% to US$34.5 billion. 


At the heart of Alphabet’s robust growth figures were strong showings across its core services, which includes the likes of Search, YouTube, and AI segments.


Perhaps the two mega-tech companies most exposed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs are Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), which are both directly impacted, especially through their operational and production ties to China.


So when Amazon reported mixed results, given this backdrop, we took the overall picture as a fairly positive story.After all, the company’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) division achieved a healthy operating profit margin of 35%, mitigating the drop compared to a year ago.


Given the outlook for tariffs also seems to be improving - with China and the US having struck a deal - Amazon’s muted forward guidance also becomes less of a concern.


It was a somewhat similar story for iPhone manufacturer Apple. In the rear-view mirror, its sales results were solid. But like Amazon, it sounded the need for caution in response to potential disruptions to its supply chain arising from tariffs. 


Accordingly, Apple lowered its full-year iPhone revenue. But as per above, if the currently improving backdrop for tariffs persists, Apple may have softened expectations in a way that could allow it to come through the other side with its reputation in good stead.


It’s a slightly different story at Tesla  (TSLA), where company-specific issues are at play for some of the operational weaknesses on show. However, by now, much of the selling should have taken this into account, including surging competition out of China, and an anti-Musk sales boycott.


We’ve always maintained the valuation on TSLA is too high, and that’s why we have not invested in it - notwithstanding its growth. But with Musk stepping back from government duties, investors have found some optimism again.


Last but not least, Nvidia (NVDA) is one name we’ll be watching very closely later this month when it reports. It is central to the AI revolution, and there is no denying it has been the flagbearer for revenue growth over recent years. We expect this to continue, even with external pressures requiring delicate attention over the short-to-medium term.

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May 10, 2025
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Earnings season points to big tech’s ongoing revenue resilience

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While markets entered earnings season with concerns amid a volatile backdrop, it was another case where Wall Street distinguished itself from Main Street.

Although there were plenty of headlines through April, in a month where tariffs and concerns about the global economic outlook dominated the narrative, another major event also took place. That is, the latest round of earnings season.



Against all the odds, and defying much of the pessimism that has engulfed markets over the last couple months, results were broadly positive, reflecting a level of resilience that is particularly impressive.


For starters, across the first quarter of the year, S&P 500 companies reported average sales growth of 3.8%.This was the 18th straight quarter where revenue growth was recorded. The nature of this growth was broad-based and robust across various industries, with seven out of eleven sectors posting positive sales growth.

Adding to the top-line results was growth at the bottom line.


In fact, while revenue increases were relatively modest, profits fared even better. As it were, earnings growth came in at 13.4% year-over-year.


These figures tell us that companies have done well to navigate an uncertain quarter where it has been difficult to get a true reading on government policy, and to a lesser extent, the direction of inflation.


Nonetheless, overall net profit margins for the benchmark S&P 500 index were 12.7%, which was an improvement against the preceding quarter, when said metric was 12.6%, and it was also higher than the relevant figure from a year ago, which clocked in at 11.8%. 


Of course, it wouldn’t be earnings season if the mega-tech sector didn’t play a leading hand, as was the case yet again during the first quarter of 2025.


In fact, the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors were the primary catalysts for growth across the market, with sector earnings increasing by 17.4% and 29.1% respectively.


One surprising point rests in the fact that revenue growth across the tech sector, like the broader S&P 500, lagged earnings growth.


This isn’t necessarily a bad problem, since it shows that companies have been able to optimise their operations and build out their margins.


However, moving forward, the longer revenue growth remains modest, the deeper companies will need to search in order to harness the efficiencies that maintain their margins, let alone grow them.


And with much uncertainty still dependent on macroeconomic factors, there is the prospect that revenue growth becomes harder to realise as companies lose flexibility over some of the cost controls in their business.


Tech sector underpins growth


Focusing specifically on the tech sector, and the feats of big tech, it’s easy to see why earnings season was a success last month.


Overall, this group provided the reassurances required to maintain the recovery that started to build momentum when the US government rolled back its position on individualised tariffs for every country around the world.


On the whole, the tech conglomerates achieved a year-over-year earnings increase of 28%, which is a significant accomplishment given many companies were walking a tightrope of uncertainty.


By way of comparison, the rest of the reporting S&P 500 constituents delivered earnings growth of 9% during Q1 2025. 


As such, big-tech effectively tripled the growth rate of the rest of the market - and more than doubled the total growth rate for the S&P 500 - showcasing why these high-profile names command premiums to their valuations.

In the case of Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), these two companies were arguably the pick of the bunch from the tech sector, with both of the tech giants exceeding economists forecasts.


When it came to Meta Platforms, the company also announced that it would be increasing its capital expenditure for the full-year, looking to capitalise on the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. 


This is a decision that we took a particular liking to, as in our opinion, to date, Meta has underinvested in this area relative to its peers. It looks as though the market may have agreed as well, with META shares rallying in light of the news, even with the revised capex range now sitting at as much as US$72 billion.


As far as Microsoft, it was hard to overlook the company’s Azure cloud division, where revenue growth was accelerating. Across this division, revenue increased by 22% over the year, providing hope that the company has entrenched its leading position in this field. 


Elsewhere, Google parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) unveiled a 12% increase in revenue, which totalled US$90.2 billion. On top of that, the company managed to lift net earnings by 46% to US$34.5 billion. 


At the heart of Alphabet’s robust growth figures were strong showings across its core services, which includes the likes of Search, YouTube, and AI segments.


Perhaps the two mega-tech companies most exposed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs are Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), which are both directly impacted, especially through their operational and production ties to China.


So when Amazon reported mixed results, given this backdrop, we took the overall picture as a fairly positive story.After all, the company’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) division achieved a healthy operating profit margin of 35%, mitigating the drop compared to a year ago.


Given the outlook for tariffs also seems to be improving - with China and the US having struck a deal - Amazon’s muted forward guidance also becomes less of a concern.


It was a somewhat similar story for iPhone manufacturer Apple. In the rear-view mirror, its sales results were solid. But like Amazon, it sounded the need for caution in response to potential disruptions to its supply chain arising from tariffs. 


Accordingly, Apple lowered its full-year iPhone revenue. But as per above, if the currently improving backdrop for tariffs persists, Apple may have softened expectations in a way that could allow it to come through the other side with its reputation in good stead.


It’s a slightly different story at Tesla  (TSLA), where company-specific issues are at play for some of the operational weaknesses on show. However, by now, much of the selling should have taken this into account, including surging competition out of China, and an anti-Musk sales boycott.


We’ve always maintained the valuation on TSLA is too high, and that’s why we have not invested in it - notwithstanding its growth. But with Musk stepping back from government duties, investors have found some optimism again.


Last but not least, Nvidia (NVDA) is one name we’ll be watching very closely later this month when it reports. It is central to the AI revolution, and there is no denying it has been the flagbearer for revenue growth over recent years. We expect this to continue, even with external pressures requiring delicate attention over the short-to-medium term.

International

INTERNATIONAL GROWTH PORTFOLIO

US markets were on the back foot last month, as trade tariffs dominated the narrative, and in the process, sparked a brief spell in bear market territory.

However, by the end of the month, the market had significantly pared its losses, and in the case of the Nasdaq, even turned positive.


For our Global Growth Portfolio, NAV decreased by -1.7% over the month, albeit solely due to foreign exchange movements, as our underlying positions offered modest returns.

By way of comparison, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 finished the month with losses of -2.8% and -1.9% respectively, but the Nasdaq Composite recorded a monthly gain of 0.9%.


In isolation, adverse forex fluctuations dragged on Portfolio NAV to the tune of about 2.5%, with the USD/AUD rate decreasing from 1.6008 to 1.5620 over the relevant period. 


In the absence of said movements, the Portfolio would have recorded NAV growth in the vicinity of 0.8% across the month, broadly in line with the Nasdaq. This also corresponds with the elevated level of exposure we hold towards tech stocks.

As for our underlying holdings, there were mixed results across the board. A key differentiator between the stocks that outperformed versus those that struggled centred on exposure to tariffs.

For example, Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), which both stand to take a hit from tariffs by virtue of their operations, weighed on the overall performance of the Portfolio last month.

On the other hand, companies that proved themselves to be resilient by virtue of their sales growth, fared far more favourably. This included the likes of Microsoft (MSFT) and Costco (COST).


Elsewhere, CrowdStrike (CRWD) continued its impressive run of form, whereby it finished the month as one of the top performing mid-to-large cap stocks, up 21.6%.

Renewed optimism concerning US–China trade negotiations provided the spark for much of the tech sector, including CrowdStrike. The company has been piecing together its recovery for the best part of the last nine months, gathering momentum, and shaking off concerns tied to its outage last year.

Another drag on the Portfolio, albeit one we see as short-lived, was UnitedHealthcare (UNH). The company was forced to downgrade its full-year guidance in response to higher-than-expected utilisation of services from customers, but we believe this is not symptomatic of any underlying issues.

While volatility has seemingly subsided, we remain alert to market conditions. At month’s end, unrealised gains represented approximately 38.2% of Portfolio NAV.

Portfolios Review: April 2025

It was an eventful month for the stock market, with investors kept on their toes amid an escalation in the global tariff scene.

Initially, as country-specific tariffs were announced, investors retreated to the sidelines in haste, with the key US indices soon entering a correction, and the Nasdaq even in bear market territory.

But as the US administration wound back  and paused some of its tough measures, and rhetoric also softened out of China, there was a sense of optimism that trade deals might be struck that significantly mitigate the worst-case scenario associated with a tit-for-tat tariff war.

Locally, investors were rightly concerned about the tariffs also, but that sense of angst soon faded as investors started to dial up expectations for rate relief from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

What was initially looking like it might be a line-ball decision for an interest rate cut in May became a fully priced-in forecast, with expectations for several other rate cuts in 2025.

As a result, the ASX 200 finished the month in the green, taking confidence from the Nasdaq, albeit other US indices pared their losses.

Our Portfolios eked out modest returns, but performance returns lagged benchmarks on account of exposure to the likes of the S&P 500, and adverse foreign exchange movements.

ASX shares stage impressive turnaround

As the local share market staged a strong turnaround, we captured much of the upside associated with this rally through our exposure to funds with an ASX focus.

For example, the Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) advanced 2.7% last month, which was enough for it to represent one of the strongest contributions to each of our Portfolios’ returns.

In the case of the Growth and High Growth Portfolios, a greater weighting to A200, as well as broader ASX holdings, was beneficial for overall returns.

Meanwhile, there was also a strong showing from the likes of the Betashares Australian Quality ETF (AQLT) and BKI Investment Company (BKI), with the latter offering exposure to a host of blue-chip companies.

Financials played a strong part in the local share market’s recovery last month, with the banks, especially Commonwealth Bank (CBA), turning their sharp losses around.

In the case of CBA, the nation’s largest bank rallied 10.4% over the month, finishing at a record high.

Broader sentiment for ASX stocks was supported by the prospect that the Reserve Bank of Australia could be prompted to cut interest rates on multiple occasions in 2025, with various headwinds arising from global trade tariffs that could dampen economic growth.

US shares hit by forex movements

While US indices ultimately finished the month in mixed territory, the nature of our exposure to US-oriented funds had a net drag on our Portfolios.

A pivotal factor in the performance of these holdings was foreign exchange differences, which compoundeded underlying losses in the case of the iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF.

Across the course of the month, IVV shed 2.0%, which although a relatively modest decline, was amplified on account of the different levels of exposure across each Portfolio.

But it should be noted, IVV is not the only US-oriented fund we hold, and we do have some hedging for our US exposure on account of the Betashares Nasdaq 100 Currency Hedged ETF (HNDQ).

This afforded us some cover arising from the adverse currency movements, including a slightly weaker greenback.

As far as specific areas of focus behind the performance of our US holdings, tech shares were the standout, staging a remarkable turnaround after the rout at the start of the month.

As we have long advocated, maintaining exposure even through market downturns is a healthy mindset, as it aligns with a long-term investing mantra facilitating sustainable returns.

Had we started to reduce our exposure at the height of the market downturn, not only would we have locked in losses, but we also would have missed out on considerable upside associated with the subsequent rally.

It is these sorts of decisions that can have a profound impact on both short-term returns, as well as long-term performance data.

With this in mind, and cognisant of the fact that tariff volatility could return at a subsequent date, we want to make it clear that US equities will always remain a core part of our Portfolios.

This is especially the case for our growth-oriented Portfolios, where investors should expect some volatility or negative returns across a short period from time to time.

Rising bond yields temper returns

While our exposure to bonds has offered a mixed set of results to date, in April it was clear that this asset class weighed on the performance of our Portfolios.

Through the early stages of April, the Vaneck 1-3 Month Us Treasury Bond ETF (TBIL) performed remarkably well, attracting interest as broader market volatility prompted investors to seek out more defensive exposure in bonds.

However, by the end of the month, TBIL had shed around 2% in value, which then detracted from the returns of each Portfolio.

In the case of the Conservative Portfolio, its performance was further hamstrung by the inclusion of the Betashares US Treasury Bond 20+ Year Currency Hedged ETF (GGOV).

Last month, GGOV, which traded in a similar fashion to TBIL, lost around 1.3%.

Long-dated bond yields surged higher once the initial market sell-off subsided, which paved the way for negative returns across this asset class.

Big gains across private debt assets

Just a month after being one of the biggest headwinds for our Portfolios in March, private debt assets proved to be far more reliable through April.

As it were, the Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) overcame a steep decline at the start of the month, before eventually turning out a 2% gain for the month.

While that result does not offset the fall recorded over recent months, it was broadly supportive of overall NAV growth.

At the same time, MXT is included in our Portfolios because it seeks to provide investors with exposure to monthly cash income, while also doing so with reduced capital volatility.

In this respect, it offers risk-adjusted returns that facilitate diversification within a portfolio, and that is something we consider to be attractive.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia cycle also set to prompt several rate cuts over the coming months, the opportunity to secure income in this fashion - and above the RBA rate - is something we are drawn towards, especially given the underlying performance of the Trust remains healthy in various respects.

George Wong
Senior Investment Advisor
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