AI Surge Reshapes Global Markets: The Growth, The Leaders, and The Opportunities Ahead

September 24, 2024

How AI is unlocking expansive growth for the market.

AI is proving central to the fortunes of big tech, with companies committed to big investments in this growing space.

With another earnings season now all but done and dusted, it’s time to take stock of what it means for the markets.

If it wasn’t already clear from the record highs, earnings season was well received, and if anything, it reinforced the key thematics giving investors the confidence to support this bull run.

Make no mistake, mega-tech stole the show once again, and the common theme across this cohort centred on the fact that artificial intelligence (AI) remains a dominant structural catalyst.

Not only has this channel opened up the prospect of new revenue streams, but it has also emerged as an amplifying force to supercharge existing revenue streams.

Meanwhile, right across the board, companies are sensing these opportunities as demand accumulates, and responding by allocating unprecedented capital expenditure towards this category.

With all that said and done, these were the key takeaways from mega-tech earnings.

Alphabet boosts capex outlook amid AI surge


Kicking off proceedings, Alphabet (GOOGL) set the tone with standout results that exceeded the most optimistic of forecasts.

In total, the tech conglomerate reported 14% revenue growth versus the prior comparable period, totalling US$96.4 billion in the second quarter.

While many expected the economic landscape to act as a headwind for the company’s Search advertising division, that proved to be unfounded.

Nevertheless, it was the long-heralded Cloud division that put in the hard yards, with quarterly revenue from this segment surging 32% to US$13.6 billion.

Many had written off Alphabet’s growth as having likely peaked, but as it turns out, Cloud growth moved forward at its fastest rate since the third quarter of 2024.

In keeping with the AI fanfare, strong demand for AI infrastructure and core products such as Gemini proved instrumental to this result. We’ve seen generative AI deployed throughout the company’s product suite, which is also boosting engagement across Search and YouTube.

Now anticipating US$85 billion in capex for 2025 - an increase of US$10 billion - it is clear that Alphabet sees itself stepping into an AI leadership position to sustain strong growth over the coming years.

Microsoft Azure growth accelerates

Next up, Microsoft (MSFT) set the bar high by its own standards, relishing in its role as an AI flagbearer. During its fiscal fourth quarter, MSFT grew revenue 18% to US$76.4 billion, and over the full year, revenue rose 15% to US$281.7 billion.

Unsurprisingly, Microsoft’s Cloud segment, most notably Azure, supported this growth. The Azure segment grew revenue 39% over the year, with AI tools being implemented across Microsoft 365 and enterprise AI adoption picking up steam.

Over previous quarters, Microsoft’s Azure and other cloud services revenue was growing in the range of 33-35%. While impressive, that rate accelerated across the most recent quarter, and it boils down to new AI deployments, legacy migrations, and the like.

Accelerating AI momentum and market share gains in the Cloud segment see Microsoft poised to continue investing heavily in pursuit of growth.

Meta harnesses a rebound in advertising

Not to be outdone, Meta Platforms (META) was also sharing the stage with Microsoft at the end of the month, however, it managed to shine brightly on account of its own resilient performance.

Notching up its 10th consecutive revenue beat, the social media giant grew the top line by an impressive 22%. This included a near identical growth rate in its Advertising segment, where like other companies already mentioned, AI has been deployed to boost engagement.

At the same time, more broadly, Meta has witnessed a recovery in e-commerce ads, gone toe-to-toe with rival TikTok for engagement courtesy of its Reels product, and deployed AI upgrades to leverage more tailored outcomes for users.

Speaking of which, across its Family of Apps, Meta recorded user growth, with daily active users surpassing 3.3 billion.

Looking forward, while Meta expects revenue in the coming quarter to fall in the range of 18-20% growth, it also offered strong clues about its own future AI capex plans.

On that point, capex has been hiked slightly for 2025, but next year it is expected to yield bigger increases specifically for AI capabilities that will underpin medium to long-term growth.

Amazon turns around its Web Services growth

Amazon’s (AMZN) resilience was on show when it announced a strong set of results that also happened to top estimates.

During the second fiscal quarter, the company reported a 13% increase in revenue to US$167.7 billion, buoyed by strong e-commerce and advertising results.

The company’s key growth driver, Amazon Web Services, recorded an 18% increase in revenue, which totalled US$30.9 billion.

After a period of slowing growth, this marked an acceleration compared with prior quarters. It comes as little surprise on account of surging AI demand for its services like Amazon Bedrock and SageMaker, which represent foundations for all things related to optimising models, or even building and deploying machine learning models.

On the retail front, Amazon’s performance also improved, largely thanks to ad revenue courtesy of Prime, and international margin growth. AWS is expected to keep growing thanks to the uptake of AI.

Apple looks to iPhone recovery, Services for growth

Last but not least, Apple also managed to deliver in spades after a testing period for the business. It grew revenue 10% to US$94 billion in the third fiscal quarter, its fastest growth since December 2021.

Key to this turnaround was a 13% increase in iPhone sales. The channel benefitted from demand in emerging markets, as well as the redeployment of AI services.

Meanwhile, Apple’s Services category achieved a number of records, including subscriptions and App store growth. Again, AI has played a pivotal role here, with the company’s ecosystem effectively becoming more ‘sticky’ as a result.

Although revenue growth is probably likely to moderate from here, Apple proved it shouldn’t be written off despite challenges in markets like China, and trade tariff angst.

Some might also question Apple’s AI commitments, but the company has shown it is embracing this theme, just in a different way than its peers.

BUSINESS
August 10, 2025
Tagged:
Markets

AI Surge Reshapes Global Markets: The Growth, The Leaders, and The Opportunities Ahead

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How AI is unlocking expansive growth for the market.

AI is proving central to the fortunes of big tech, with companies committed to big investments in this growing space.

With another earnings season now all but done and dusted, it’s time to take stock of what it means for the markets.

If it wasn’t already clear from the record highs, earnings season was well received, and if anything, it reinforced the key thematics giving investors the confidence to support this bull run.

Make no mistake, mega-tech stole the show once again, and the common theme across this cohort centred on the fact that artificial intelligence (AI) remains a dominant structural catalyst.

Not only has this channel opened up the prospect of new revenue streams, but it has also emerged as an amplifying force to supercharge existing revenue streams.

Meanwhile, right across the board, companies are sensing these opportunities as demand accumulates, and responding by allocating unprecedented capital expenditure towards this category.

With all that said and done, these were the key takeaways from mega-tech earnings.

Alphabet boosts capex outlook amid AI surge


Kicking off proceedings, Alphabet (GOOGL) set the tone with standout results that exceeded the most optimistic of forecasts.

In total, the tech conglomerate reported 14% revenue growth versus the prior comparable period, totalling US$96.4 billion in the second quarter.

While many expected the economic landscape to act as a headwind for the company’s Search advertising division, that proved to be unfounded.

Nevertheless, it was the long-heralded Cloud division that put in the hard yards, with quarterly revenue from this segment surging 32% to US$13.6 billion.

Many had written off Alphabet’s growth as having likely peaked, but as it turns out, Cloud growth moved forward at its fastest rate since the third quarter of 2024.

In keeping with the AI fanfare, strong demand for AI infrastructure and core products such as Gemini proved instrumental to this result. We’ve seen generative AI deployed throughout the company’s product suite, which is also boosting engagement across Search and YouTube.

Now anticipating US$85 billion in capex for 2025 - an increase of US$10 billion - it is clear that Alphabet sees itself stepping into an AI leadership position to sustain strong growth over the coming years.

Microsoft Azure growth accelerates

Next up, Microsoft (MSFT) set the bar high by its own standards, relishing in its role as an AI flagbearer. During its fiscal fourth quarter, MSFT grew revenue 18% to US$76.4 billion, and over the full year, revenue rose 15% to US$281.7 billion.

Unsurprisingly, Microsoft’s Cloud segment, most notably Azure, supported this growth. The Azure segment grew revenue 39% over the year, with AI tools being implemented across Microsoft 365 and enterprise AI adoption picking up steam.

Over previous quarters, Microsoft’s Azure and other cloud services revenue was growing in the range of 33-35%. While impressive, that rate accelerated across the most recent quarter, and it boils down to new AI deployments, legacy migrations, and the like.

Accelerating AI momentum and market share gains in the Cloud segment see Microsoft poised to continue investing heavily in pursuit of growth.

Meta harnesses a rebound in advertising

Not to be outdone, Meta Platforms (META) was also sharing the stage with Microsoft at the end of the month, however, it managed to shine brightly on account of its own resilient performance.

Notching up its 10th consecutive revenue beat, the social media giant grew the top line by an impressive 22%. This included a near identical growth rate in its Advertising segment, where like other companies already mentioned, AI has been deployed to boost engagement.

At the same time, more broadly, Meta has witnessed a recovery in e-commerce ads, gone toe-to-toe with rival TikTok for engagement courtesy of its Reels product, and deployed AI upgrades to leverage more tailored outcomes for users.

Speaking of which, across its Family of Apps, Meta recorded user growth, with daily active users surpassing 3.3 billion.

Looking forward, while Meta expects revenue in the coming quarter to fall in the range of 18-20% growth, it also offered strong clues about its own future AI capex plans.

On that point, capex has been hiked slightly for 2025, but next year it is expected to yield bigger increases specifically for AI capabilities that will underpin medium to long-term growth.

Amazon turns around its Web Services growth

Amazon’s (AMZN) resilience was on show when it announced a strong set of results that also happened to top estimates.

During the second fiscal quarter, the company reported a 13% increase in revenue to US$167.7 billion, buoyed by strong e-commerce and advertising results.

The company’s key growth driver, Amazon Web Services, recorded an 18% increase in revenue, which totalled US$30.9 billion.

After a period of slowing growth, this marked an acceleration compared with prior quarters. It comes as little surprise on account of surging AI demand for its services like Amazon Bedrock and SageMaker, which represent foundations for all things related to optimising models, or even building and deploying machine learning models.

On the retail front, Amazon’s performance also improved, largely thanks to ad revenue courtesy of Prime, and international margin growth. AWS is expected to keep growing thanks to the uptake of AI.

Apple looks to iPhone recovery, Services for growth

Last but not least, Apple also managed to deliver in spades after a testing period for the business. It grew revenue 10% to US$94 billion in the third fiscal quarter, its fastest growth since December 2021.

Key to this turnaround was a 13% increase in iPhone sales. The channel benefitted from demand in emerging markets, as well as the redeployment of AI services.

Meanwhile, Apple’s Services category achieved a number of records, including subscriptions and App store growth. Again, AI has played a pivotal role here, with the company’s ecosystem effectively becoming more ‘sticky’ as a result.

Although revenue growth is probably likely to moderate from here, Apple proved it shouldn’t be written off despite challenges in markets like China, and trade tariff angst.

Some might also question Apple’s AI commitments, but the company has shown it is embracing this theme, just in a different way than its peers.

International

INTERNATIONAL GROWTH PORTFOLIO

In July the Global Growth Portfolio returned a monthly gain of 2.2%, with NAV benefitting from the undercurrents of a positive market, and favourable currency exchange movements.

While our underlying holdings did take a hit on account of share price declines in a number of core positions, the USD/AUD appreciated from 1.5195 to 1.5564 over the course of the month, reversing June’s weakness.

Nevertheless, it was not enough to lift the Portfolio ahead of all its benchmarks, with the Nasdaq Composite returning 3.7% for the month. However, the Portfolio’s returns were in line with the S&P 500, and well ahead of the Dow Jones, which only returned 0.1% for the month.

In terms of key performers, the semiconductor segment was back in favour last month as investors poured significant capital into this cohort. Winners included Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), with the latter proving a catalyst for the cohort on account of a strong quarterly report.

As we have advocated for on a number of occasions thus far, we feel the semiconductor segment will be at the heart of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, which still appears to have a lot of room to run.

Speaking of which, the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) continued their fine run of form, and again, it is by no coincidence that these stocks are heavily leveraged to the AI trade. This trio are three of the biggest companies tied to the AI rollout, effectively flagbearers for the growth of this theme.

Meanwhile, in a continuation of a trend that has been unfolding over recent months, we saw further weakness across Portfolio defensives like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Costco (COST), Procter & Gamble (PG), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH).

These stocks have encountered weakness of late as investors prioritise growth assets, especially with the prospect of rate cuts on the horizon.

In the case of Berkshire Hathaway, its share price has come under increasing pressure since news broke that Warren Buffett would soon step down from the company. In our view, the sell-off is detached from the reality of what is a clearly foreshadowed change in the company, with significant effort having gone into the company’s transition plan.

While these stocks may have lost out over recent months, they remain integral holdings within the Portfolio on account of the diversity they provide, not to mention, their long-term performance records remain exceptional, and testament to their ability to generate returns over a more sustainable cycle for wealth creation.

By the end of the month, unrealised Portfolio gains represented approximately 44.4% of total NAV.

Portfolios Review: July 2025

Global equities markets remained firm through July, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both cementing record highs. Locally, the ASX also managed to reset its all-time high, providing a positive backdrop for investors, despite rate jitters.

While central banks, including both the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia have shown caution as far as passing on further easing in monetary policy, the market has focused its attention on the success of various growth segments, especially those propelled by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).

In the US, recent signs have pointed to inflation potentially accelerating as the impact of tariffs work their way through.

On the other hand, Australia’s inflation is in a downtrend that looks more assured.

Across both regions, labour markets have softened, and while still in a robust state when assessed against historical levels, the trend does give credence to the need for some rate relief to support economic activity.

Another key factor over recent weeks was the US earnings season, which proved largely successful, bettering expectations. With the local reporting season now under way, we anticipate a key test for bellwether names and any growth stocks with valuations that might be stretched.

Regardless, last month saw most of our Portfolios outperform the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 yet again.

In particular, Portfolios with at least a moderate amount of growth assets fared well, with the Conservative Portfolio the only one to lag the market, and even then, by a whisker.

On the back of last month’s results, our growth-oriented Portfolios closed the gap against the ASX 200 on a year-to-date basis.

AI surge continues to drive US returns

With US markets recording another solid month, you didn’t need to search for too long to come to the realisation that the catalyst was a surging AI market once again.

In what has been a major driver for US markets for some time now, the AI trade was again dominating the narrative, and in turn, provided a strong tailwind for the various holdings we retain in our Portfolios that provide exposure to the world’s largest stock market.

This includes the likes of the iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV), the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ), the VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (QUAL), the VanEck MSCI International Quality Hedged ETF (QHAL), as well as the Betashares Nasdaq 100 Currency Hedged ETF (HNDQ).

For the second month running, semiconductor stocks underpinned the rally, with high profile companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) all benefitting from the market’s reaction to standout earnings from the lattermost name.

Alongside this cohort, AI hyperscalers such as Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) all helped fuel the rally.

The strength of these names was ultimately enough to aid the returns of our Balanced, Growth, and High Growth Portfolios.


In the case of the latter two, where growth assets represent a significant portion of our net assets, US equities offered favourable exposure that helped facilitate outperformance against the local market.

Another helpful tailwind we enjoyed last month came courtesy of softness in the Australian dollar, which boosted funds with US dollar denominated assets.

Yes, some of our US funds are hedged against currency movements, but several ETFs retain holdings in USD, which meant the stronger greenback aided returns through July.

While currency volatility can be a double-edged sword, the recent trend has provided a tailwind for Australian investors with global exposure, and we’d like to think this serves as a good reminder of the benefits of international diversification.

Nevertheless, on the whole, with market volatility continuing to subside - in fact, the Volatility Index (VIX) was back at multi-year lows - investor confidence has been restored, providing a marked shift in sentiment compared with earlier in the year when traders hurried to the sidelines as markets tumbled sharply.


ASX strength continues heading into reporting season

Much like the US, momentum played a big role in helping the local market cement a new all-time high.

However, unlike previous months, where Financials were tasked with doing most of the work, this time around we saw a fairly evenly spread of contributions from a number of sectors, led principally by the Health Care, Energy, Utilities, and Information Technology sectors.

As it were, 10 out of the 11 official ASX sectors finished the month in positive territory, and it was the Financials sector that lagged all others, notwithstanding another strong showing from Commonwealth Bank (CBA).

While the usual stalwarts in the Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) and the Betashares Australian Quality ETF (AQLT) offered robust returns, the real differentiator for each of our Portfolios turned out to be BKI Investment Company (BKI), which surged 7.4% through the month.

In our view, with the fund still trading well below its pre-tax Net Tangible Assets (NTA) value - and marginally below its post-tax NTA - a very strong yield, and a solid portfolio of underlying ASX holdings, BKI is an attractive opportunity.


Diversification reaps rewards amid healthy returns from other asset classes

In a month where equities extended their rally, other assets also fared particularly well.

Infrastructure assets caught a bid as investors continued to tip money into this asset class.


For us, that meant the VanEck FTSE Global Infrastructure ETF (IFRA) and the Vanguard Global Infrastructure Index ETF (VBLD) yielded modest returns for each Portfolio.

In many respects, these positions represented a more attractive proposition than cash, which appears less likely to contribute beyond a capital preservation role if interest rates are forecast to decline over the coming months.

Similarly, hybrids fulfilled their role within our Portfolios, generating solid returns for the second straight month.

While this was more apparent in our Conservative Portfolio, where more capital is invested in bank hybrids, each of our four Portfolios benefitted to some extent from these holdings in July.

Elsewhere, the Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) returned 1.5% for the month, while the Vaneck 1-3 Month US Treasury Bond ETF (TBIL) reversed course after a disappointing showing the month prior and also rallied by a similar amount.

Although one might reflect on the varying magnitudes of positive returns offered by the above asset classes, and perhaps even question why it wouldn’t be easier to simply hold all funds in growth assets, namely equities, we must acknowledge the fact that seldom does the market rise in a linear fashion.

It is expected there will be month-to-month volatility and pull-backs. Diversification offers a strategy to counter this, while also fitting the differing investment objectives of each Portfolio.

George Wong
Senior Investment Advisor
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Growthfront Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 1302922) of Geosmith Partners AFSL 700062 ABN 86 684 092 135. Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs except in circumstances where you have provided your personal financial details via our online application process and received a Statement of Advice from us. Before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us